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ttestagr
April 13th, 2011, 08:45 PM
A great number of Shirou's preconceptions were set thanks to Rin, Kotomine, and Ilya's ambush afterwards. That night was the catalyst for Shirou's reaction to pretty much everyone afterwards, and it took a fair amount to change his mind. Ilya for example, wasn't actually a threat with the Grail for a number of fairly obvious reasons. It was her attack on him that made Shirou classify her as someone who couldn't be allowed to have it. The same way that Rin helping him and his unconscious knowledge that she saved his life colored his perception of her for the rest of the War.

However if Shirou missed the fight with Lancer and Archer, his reactions to everyone would utterly change. And completely change subsequent events.

Saber would still get summoned. His command seal was showing up well beforehand and there was a circle in his practice area. Eventually the Grail was going to throw Saber at him. And if she's the only one available, she is going to be the one who's going to have to explain things to him. Part of the reason that she got away without having much known about her is that Rin took on the bulk of that duty. But if Saber does it:

1)She has to explain what she is and why she's there. The issue? Shirou right off the bat sees her as an exceptionally attractive young girl his own age and doesn't have any desire or wish that he needs to fight over the Holy Grail for.

2)They are starting off without allies, and Saber at that point massively overestimates herself and underestimates the opposition. Not a good thing for her, because it leads to bad things when Ilya eventually shows up looking for a fight. It also pretty much assures that fight and destroys the possibility that meeting Shirou will amuse Ilya enough that she's willing to let him go without any violence.

3)The first 'friendly' Master Shirou is likely to meet is Shinji. If they survive the confrontation with Berserker and Ilya. Not assured there. Anyway, a team up with Shinji and Rider is likely as is Shirou learning that Rin is a magus from that turds massively self centered point of view.

4)Archer. Without Shirou's interruption, he's either dead or something very unexpected happened to ensure his survival. One puts Rin out of the fight and looking to get back in through just about any means possible. The other just leads to places we've been before. Kotomine wouldn't have Rin killed there though, her misery at having her Servant killed so early would be too amusing to him.

So let us get on with things. Shirou and Shinji team up, Shinji using the excuse of preparing to defend himself since his participation is an 'accident.' But he's looking to win no matter the cost. So either use Shirou to weed out the competition, or look to trade up at the first opportunity. And he's aware of Rin. Now while Shirou is useless to him really, he does have the strongest class. Rin at best would bring a weaker class, but she's much more dangerous herself early on. Or at all from everything Shinji sees no matter the route.

Rin is without a Servant however, since Archer had to eat Gae Bolg. She has no choice but to wait for people to be defeated, or kill a Master herself. And Shinji presents such a tempting target just as long as he doesn't know her Archer is gone. So if she gets desperate, and the prospect of having two Servants united is a terrible one, she'll set herself up to backstab Shinji as soon as she has an opening. And the best opportunity for her would be a time when Shinji backstabs Shirou. To get to that point, some trust would have to be developed with Saber. So that she trusts Rider somewhat with her Master's safety instead of completely revolting against the idea of him going to school without her personal protection.

Which is where Shirou and Rider interaction comes into play. And Saber/Rider interaction. Once an understanding is reached, the next part comes up.

I won't give details, but a double backstab where a hell of a lot of things go wrong and Shirou is left with Rider, Shinji is left dead, and Rin is left fucked because this course of events would absolutely destroy any potential trust that Shirou might have had for her.

And with the first big conflict completely cleared, the other enemies can move into play. Caster is looking to improve her forces to be able to challenge Herk. Ilya is watching everything for shits and giggles at this point. Kirei and Gil are still watching since no single side has developed an overwhelming advantage. Zouken hasn't made a move to bring Sakura to fruition early since events didn't lead to that early on, so he's still going slow and steady on the plan to use Sakura as a grail after a great deal of preparation after this war has ended in failure.

And at this point, Caster would make her move to steal some of Shirou's forces.

Mike1984
April 13th, 2011, 08:58 PM
OK, well, you're probably going to ignore me on TFF, so I'm going to post this here too, where more knowledgeable people can read it and you can't just try to divert my criticism by resorting to purile insults.

Sakura is still Rider's true master, Shinji's death would not change that. Whilst Shirou could pick up the book, she can destroy it whenever she likes (HF proves as much), and Zouken most likely also can (and, even if he can't do so directly, he can just order Sakura to do so). So, why would he not take Rider back? He gains nothing from having Shirou control her. Further, what does Rider gain? She's not Shirou's true servant, and she would want to hand her wish to Sakura. As much as she might like Shirou (and, she comes to like him a hell of a lot in HF, and even recognises that he's a decent person in Fate), she can't win the Grail and help Sakura by acting as his servant, and Sakura most definitely comes first in her mind.

There are, of course, probably ways around the second part, at least (I can think of a few), but I'm just pointing out the potential issues.

Kotonoha
April 13th, 2011, 09:02 PM
Fic ideas should probably go in the fic ideas (http://forums.nrvnqsr.com/showthread.php/101-Type-Moon-Fanfic-Ideas) thread, yeah?

Mike1984
April 13th, 2011, 09:04 PM
Fic ideas should probably go in the fic ideas (http://forums.nrvnqsr.com/showthread.php/101-Type-Moon-Fanfic-Ideas) thread, yeah?

Not really if it's a fully-fledged fic that he actually intends to write. That thread is more for ideas which will probably never get written in reality.

Tangerang
April 13th, 2011, 09:06 PM
This is a pretty minor nitpick, but I feel like I should point out that it's pretty unlikely/close to impossible that Lancer manages to kill in the schoolyard at the start, gae bolg or no.

Because A. he was under the command spell to specifically lose all his fights, and B. Archer apparently knows several ways to counter Gae Bolg (1. of which is apparently running away really fast)

ttestagr
April 13th, 2011, 09:17 PM
This is a pretty minor nitpick, but I feel like I should point out that it's pretty unlikely/close to impossible that Lancer manages to kill in the schoolyard at the start, gae bolg or no.

Because A. he was under the command spell to specifically lose all his fights, and B. Archer apparently knows several ways to counter Gae Bolg (1. of which is apparently running away really fast)

Early on is a really bad situation for Archer. He doesn't have the luck to dodge Gae Bolg. Also, we see later in UBW that his shield requires setup enough that he's worried about getting it out on time against Lancer's thrown version of Gae Bolg. Which itself requires a few moments of setup.

The two explanations I see is that he doesn't have his memories and isn't fully aware of what is coming. Or he does, and is relying on Shirou showing up and interrupting the fight.

"Crap."
He'll be beaten.
I don't know what kind of Noble Phantasm that is, but Archer will be beaten.
It's implausible since this is the first time I've felt such an intuition, but there's no doubt about it.

Archer will die when that lance is thrust.
It is determined.
Literally, Lancer's lance is the embodiment of inescapable death

I don't need a Servant around the house, there are no Masters at school, Archer will die when that lance is thrust... you'd think she would learn.

"Oh."
Archer will be defeated.
Archer will die when Lancer pierces his heart.

And yet.
Even though I know what's going to happen, I can't even help him.
Because if I move even a finger, that will trigger the attack.

"…Huh?"
The ghastly air coming from Lancer disappears.
The sound of fleeing footsteps.
…That figure is definitely wearing a school uniform.

"A student…!? Someone was still here!?"
"It seems so. He did save our lives, though."

That is Archer speaking in bold as you should know.


PS: Completely forgot about the idea thread. But since when did you need to throw all ideas in there though?

Mike1984
April 13th, 2011, 09:24 PM
Hmm, I see that you're just going to ignore me, despite me having a perfectly valid point, and yet will respond to points made by other people which are no more valid....

Tangerang
April 13th, 2011, 09:35 PM
I know, but according to Nasu, he was lying. Something like 'if Archer was really expecting Lancer to use Gae Bolg, he wouldn't have just been standing there, doing nothing, he'd be taking countermeasures'

ItsaRandomUsername
April 13th, 2011, 09:35 PM
Isn't it sad, Mike-kun?

ttestagr
April 13th, 2011, 09:46 PM
Fic ideas should probably go in the fic ideas (http://forums.nrvnqsr.com/showthread.php/101-Type-Moon-Fanfic-Ideas) thread, yeah?


I know, but according to Nasu, he was lying. Something like 'if Archer was really expecting Lancer to use Gae Bolg, he wouldn't have just been standing there, doing nothing, he'd be taking countermeasures'

Which leaves him relying on Shirou's interruption, since we know he wasn't drawing any extra from Rin to set up those countermeasures.

[email protected]: Mike is making his feelings quite clear on another forum. I'm disagreeing with him rather vigorously. So I'm ignoring him in this thread, since I find dealing with him over the same thing in two separate places utterly redundant.

Tangerang
April 13th, 2011, 09:50 PM
Well, the way I interpreted it, was that Archer noticed Shirou way earlier and knew he was going to interrupt. If he didn't notice that Shirou was already there, he'd be taking countermeasures.

Also, that doesn't change the fact that it's quite literally impossible for Lancer to win. You know, with the command spell limitations and all. It's quite possible the command spell would force it to be a non-fatal wound.

'Fight all the servants, but do not defeat any of them'

ttestagr
April 13th, 2011, 09:53 PM
That command spell isn't immediate, so it wouldn't be an absolute order though. That kind of thing should get degradation of ability at the most, and Kirei isn't as good of a magus as Rin so it shouldn't even be as bad as what Archer dealt with.

Mike1984
April 13th, 2011, 09:54 PM
[email protected]: Mike is making his feelings quite clear on another forum. I'm disagreeing with him rather vigorously. So I'm ignoring him in this thread, since I find dealing with him over the same thing in two separate places utterly redundant.

No, you're not "disagreeing with me rather vigourously", you're entirely ignoring my actual criticisms and just throwing personal jibes at me. Which, presumably, is why you're replying on TFF (where you can get away with it) and not here (where you can't).


Also, that doesn't change the fact that it's quite literally impossible for Lancer to win. You know, with the command spell limitations and all. It's quite possible the command spell would force it to be a non-fatal wound.

Except that Lancer used Gae Bolg on Saber, and she specifically stated that only her luck allowed her to avoid it (in a way which makes it quite clear that she dodged the attack by luck, not that Lancer made it miss and she was lucky that he did so, because the same argument could just as easily be applied to Archer). Plus, Gae Bolg always hits the heart. Lancer has no control over it once he's released it, he is physically incapable of making it miss.

Elf
April 13th, 2011, 10:41 PM
Then . . . I mean, if Rin could repair Shirou's heart with the jewel, then couldn't she do the same with Archer?

He does have Independent Action and would theoretically linger after being stabbed so she COULD heal him.

Mike1984
April 13th, 2011, 10:47 PM
Well, is his heart "real" enough? But, then again, he's made of prana so it might even be easier.

Also, Independant Action doesn't mean that he lingers around if he's killed, IIRC, it just means that he doesn't die without a master.

Muramasa
April 13th, 2011, 10:51 PM
Assuming Rin managed to escape from Lancer?

eddyak
April 13th, 2011, 10:55 PM
Except that Lancer used Gae Bolg on Saber, and she specifically stated that only her luck allowed her to avoid it (in a way which makes it quite clear that she dodged the attack by luck, not that Lancer made it miss and she was lucky that he did so, because the same argument could just as easily be applied to Archer). Plus, Gae Bolg always hits the heart. Lancer has no control over it once he's released it, he is physically incapable of making it miss.
Or the command spell only allowed him to successfully pull off Gae Bolg because it was going to miss Saber. You must really think Kotomine's an idiot, if you think he'd intentionally use a command seal that has no effect.

Elf
April 13th, 2011, 10:55 PM
Well, is his heart "real" enough? But, then again, he's made of prana so it might even be easier.

Also, Independant Action doesn't mean that he lingers around if he's killed, IIRC, it just means that he doesn't die without a master.

No, it also states in his Servant's stats that he can survive for a time even if his core is destroyed.

See in Heaven's Feel after the Shadow dealt him a fatal blow. Other Servants that would have been an Instant Kill. Archer was able to carry Rin to the Church, cut off his arm and help Kotomine graft it on. Then after that he faded.

So, if he got KOed by Gae Bolg Rin could repair his heart.

If he got KOed. Wasn't it said somewhere (Like CM3) that Archer would have gotten out of range for Gae Bolg or something bullshittish.

Mike1984
April 13th, 2011, 10:56 PM
Assuming Rin managed to escape from Lancer?

Yeah, that's another point. As much as I'm sure he'd like to spare Rin (although possibly not her virginity...), it's hard to see Lancer sparing a defeated master, unless Kotomine specifically ordered him to.

Neir
April 13th, 2011, 10:59 PM
My understanding was that a Command Spell used on a broad order (like Lancer's) would have diminished effect and could actually be ignored, albeit with penalties of decreased effectiveness when compared with something like 'dodge the next attack' or 'use all your power for your NP' or whatever.

And I assumed that the only reason Rin was able to save Shirou at all was Avalon's influence. Wounds caused by Gae Bolg can only heal naturally and all that. Did the game (or supplementary stuff) ever say whether or not Archer still has Avalon in him or not?

eddyak
April 13th, 2011, 11:01 PM
A broad order is something like "Obey me", or "Don't die" when they're not in immediate danger. A specifically worded order like "Fight but do not defeat the six other Servants" would still have a pretty powerful effect.

Mike1984
April 13th, 2011, 11:02 PM
Or the command spell only allowed him to successfully pull off Gae Bolg because it was going to miss Saber.

But how could he possibly have known it would miss. It's a matter of luck, and just having rank B luck doesn't guarentee it will miss (otherwise it would be a totally shit NP).


You must really think Kotomine's an idiot, if you think he'd intentionally use a command seal that has no effect.

I didn't say it had no effect, I said that it couldn't stop him from using it entirely. Even someone like Rin probably couldn't make such a general order absolute, let alone Kotomine. His command spell limited Lancer's fighting ability and forced him to tend towards avoiding fighting to the death, but it didn't prevent it outright.

Also, recall that Kotomine has a ridiculous number of command spells (from Zero), and has no qualms whatsoever with using them (he uses them to cure Sakura in HF, almost certainly). So, it's not like using a command spell on Lancer just to slow him down a bit and to troll him is something that Kotomine would have a problem with.


No, it also states in his Servant's stats that he can survive for a time even if his core is destroyed.

See in Heaven's Feel after the Shadow dealt him a fatal blow. Other Servants that would have been an Instant Kill. Archer was able to carry Rin to the Church, cut off his arm and help Kotomine graft it on. Then after that he faded.

Ah, OK. I wasn't sure that that was something that any servant couldn't have done.


So, if he got KOed by Gae Bolg Rin could repair his heart.

I dunno if that applies to his heart being destroyed, mind....


If he got KOed. Wasn't it said somewhere (Like CM3) that Archer would have gotten out of range for Gae Bolg or something bullshittish.

Yeah, I think so.

ttestagr
April 13th, 2011, 11:03 PM
My understanding was that a Command Spell used on a broad order (like Lancer's) would have diminished effect and could actually be ignored, albeit with penalties of decreased effectiveness when compared with something like 'dodge the next attack' or 'use all your power for your NP' or whatever.

Indeed. Lancer's order was particularly bad because it had him do multiple things. Go scout the opposition and fight them. But don't go all out and don't kill them. Until his connection to Kotomine is broken, going against that order would have left him with a permanent reduction in ability. But not too terrible, because Kirei just isn't the mage that Rin is so we know one rank down in every parameter is beyond the penalty an order of his is capable of.

Neir
April 13th, 2011, 11:06 PM
And I know Rin is a superior magus on the level of a genius, but I always thought Kotomine was supposed to be quite formidable. Note that I have not read Fate/Zero, so have none of that knowledge.

Is it just that Kotomine excels in healing, and is otherwise an average magus?

eddyak
April 13th, 2011, 11:10 PM
But how could he possibly have known it would miss. It's a matter of luck, and just having rank B luck doesn't guarentee it will miss (otherwise it would be a totally shit NP).
It wasn't up to Kotomine or Lancer, it was up to whatever system governs the Grail War and the Servants and the command spells.


I didn't say it had no effect, I said that it couldn't stop him from using it entirely. Even someone like Rin probably couldn't make such a general order absolute, let alone Kotomine. His command spell limited Lancer's fighting ability and forced him to tend towards avoiding fighting to the death, but it didn't prevent it outright.If it can't prevent them from "entirely" killing the opponent, what was the point of using a command seal in the first place?


Also, recall that Kotomine has a ridiculous number of command spells (from Zero), and has no qualms whatsoever with using them (he uses them to cure Sakura in HF, almost certainly). So, it's not like using a command spell on Lancer just to slow him down a bit and to troll him is something that Kotomine would have a problem with.
And it's not like using more than one command spell to make the order concrete wasn't an option. Actually, the combat specialist Executor of the church wouldn't make such an amateurish mistake just to troll Lancer. Remember, this is the guy whose knowledge of the grail system is second only to Zouken.

ttestagr
April 13th, 2011, 11:14 PM
And I know Rin is a superior magus on the level of a genius, but I always thought Kotomine was supposed to be quite formidable. Note that I have not read Fate/Zero, so have none of that knowledge.

Is it just that Kotomine excels in healing, and is otherwise an average magus?

Below average actually. Healing is his only talent. A lot of Kotimine's being formidable is his training as an Executor of the church, killing magi without using magic in other words. We see him take out a magus and a gunwoman with just martial arts in Zero. And that was after being surprised and bound to a tree. He shattered the tree and then messed up Iri.

Mike1984
April 13th, 2011, 11:20 PM
It wasn't up to Kotomine or Lancer, it was up to whatever system governs the Grail War and the Servants and the command spells.

Yes, but it was pure luck. The Grail cannot know beforehand if Saber was going to survive or not.


If it can't prevent them from "entirely" killing the opponent, what was the point of using a command seal in the first place?

Because it slows him down and, also, it makes his master's intentions quite clear, which makes it harder for Lancer to disobey.


And it's not like using more than one command spell to make the order concrete wasn't an option.

True....


Actually, the combat specialist Executor of the church wouldn't make such an amateurish mistake just to troll Lancer. Remember, this is the guy whose knowledge of the grail system is second only to Zouken.

Yeah, but Kotomine doesn't actually care about Lancer. He's just trolling him. And, besides, so what if he does defeat an enemy servant? That just means one less servant for Gil to take down at the end.

Neir
April 13th, 2011, 11:20 PM
It's not Executioner?

And Jesus, Kotomine is a badass troll. Maybe I should actually read Zero.

Mike1984
April 13th, 2011, 11:24 PM
And I know Rin is a superior magus on the level of a genius, but I always thought Kotomine was supposed to be quite formidable. Note that I have not read Fate/Zero, so have none of that knowledge.

Is it just that Kotomine excels in healing, and is otherwise an average magus?

Kotomine is a formidable fighter, not a formidable magus.

ttestagr
April 13th, 2011, 11:25 PM
It's not Executioner?

And Jesus, Kotomine is a badass troll. Maybe I should actually read Zero.

You should. It contains his best, most evil trolling on anybody.

eddyak
April 13th, 2011, 11:49 PM
Yes, but it was pure luck. The Grail cannot know beforehand if Saber was going to survive or not.
The Grail's the one with the Servant stats, of course it knows whether Saber can survive.


Because it slows him down and, also, it makes his master's intentions quite clear, which makes it harder for Lancer to disobey.
Which is pointless if the Servant can go against the command anyway. *shrug*


Yeah, but Kotomine doesn't actually care about Lancer. He's just trolling him. And, besides, so what if he does defeat an enemy servant? That just means one less servant for Gil to take down at the end.
He cares about learning about the enemy Servants, though. Gil wouldn't go off on such a trivial task, and if Lancer dies, so be it. He didn't even care who wins the Grail in the first place- Gil can take care of himself.

Mike1984
April 13th, 2011, 11:54 PM
The Grail's the one with the Servant stats, of course it knows whether Saber can survive.

No, because it's not simply a case of "rank B luck means you avoid Gae Bolg, rank C means you die". If it were, then it would say so in the status page. It's down to pure chance whether you avoid it or not, and whilst the likelihood of you doing so varies according to your luck, there is no certainty that you will do so.


Which is pointless if the Servant can go against the command anyway. *shrug*

Not if it makes it harder.


He cares about learning about the enemy Servants, though.

Yes, but Lancer killing one of them doesn't prevent him learning about the rest. He only attacked Saber because he had no alternative.