We've already got the "co-operation." That's just normal practice for medical research. I expect the second wave will have more impact, since it should coincide with the flu.
We've already got the "co-operation." That's just normal practice for medical research. I expect the second wave will have more impact, since it should coincide with the flu.
Asha Records
Fuyuki - Winter Cleaning
My Shameful Fics and the Wiki to go with them. Oh, and some fossil I found.
[16:43] <Twelveseal> Phallus in wonderland sounds like some bad loli-rape KC fanfic
[16:43] <@Sei> THAT'S what i wanna see
Maybe this is already the second wave? There has been a report where a guy who never visited China got it in January in USA right?
Waves will hit different parts of the world at different times according to seasonal factors, isolation policies, mutations of the virus, etc.
Trying to forecast them as a non-specialist seems a fool's errand to me.
Even under the hypothesis that immunization were mostly effective (i.e., that getting sick twice is a rare occurrence), considering the highly contagious nature of the virus, the first wave wasn't nearly widespread enough to stop a second wave from happening anywhere in the world. We're in for a bumpy ride.
Most developed countries should be better prepared for the successive waves though.
Last edited by aldeayeah; May 13th, 2020 at 06:38 AM.
don't quote me on this
@rxrx: It's unlikely. It's more that we just didn't realize it was infecting people abroad as early as it was thanks to a combination of China's opacity on the matter and the long (and sometimes variable) contagious incubation period. While the world at large thought China had it locked down in Wuhan, it was already spreading globally.
Asha Records
Fuyuki - Winter Cleaning
My Shameful Fics and the Wiki to go with them. Oh, and some fossil I found.
[16:43] <Twelveseal> Phallus in wonderland sounds like some bad loli-rape KC fanfic
[16:43] <@Sei> THAT'S what i wanna see
The official timeline:
Dec: Undiagnosed cases pile up gradually in Wuhan
Dec 27-28: First known coronavirus-positive genetic test
Dec 30: Whistleblowing doctor Li Wenliang sees test results, sends message alerting of SARS-like outbreak
Dec 31: Officially acknowledged by China, reported to WHO
Jan 1: Wuhan market shut down as likely source of identified outbreak
Jan 7: Virus isolated
Jan 11: First death reported by China
Jan 12: Genetic sequence published
The early cases reported abroad suggest the disease got out of China around mid December.
This fits the time scale, the official version and everything we know about incubation periods, contagious asymptomatic/minor cases, etc.
Let's face it, this was a hard one to stop.
Last edited by aldeayeah; May 13th, 2020 at 10:18 AM.
don't quote me on this
There's also evidence suggesting that the original cases and the current epidemic are caused by different genetic strains of the virus.
Originally Posted by Sandstorm77
What I've heard is the strain in Asia is different from the ones in Europe and USA.
Yeah. It's possible. However, Asterism's critique post of that article I posted gives me pause. If the article is accurate, it implies that the initial Wuhan virus mutated after it spread, not that the pandemic was caused by another virus.
Asha Records
Fuyuki - Winter Cleaning
My Shameful Fics and the Wiki to go with them. Oh, and some fossil I found.
[16:43] <Twelveseal> Phallus in wonderland sounds like some bad loli-rape KC fanfic
[16:43] <@Sei> THAT'S what i wanna see
There are multiple strains of covid-19 causing coronavirus (most viruses mutate pretty fast)
Some of those strains have a particular mutation (D614G) that apparently makes them more virulent (or at least, it appears to have displaced the original strain in the territories in which it appears.)
This mutation is thought to have appeared in Europe and was majoritary in the European outbreaks as early as March.
Currently, that mutation is majoritary in most countries with an ongoing active outbreak.
It hasn't affected much the countries with the earliest outbreaks that have been since contained (China, S.Korea)
Research article
- - - Updated - - -
I don't think it's been tracked precisely, but the mutation certainly happened after the Wuhan outbreak, and it's likely that it happened in the early stages of the Italy outbreak.
Both the Wuhan strain and the mutant strain are present worldwide, though, so it's not like you can chalk up the pandemic to any particular strain - each of the main strains is likely to be capable of causing a pandemic on its own.
Last edited by aldeayeah; May 13th, 2020 at 10:27 AM.
don't quote me on this
Letting it go wild leads to a higher chance of even more mutation. What is worrying is that it might make vaccines useless against different strains.
Why do you think I preferred the guy? It was certainly not because of his policies (maybe his initial appearance, in which he seemed less hawkish).
I lol'd at this.
Deciding on war with China and somehow not ending with a desertified Washington DC and ashen Beijing? Nice one!
Except Vietnam was rained on and they still won by tying their hands diplomatically and then bullrushing into the South. They knew the US couldn't defeat a country their size without going WWII on someone.
I mean, this would be ignoring the fact that China pretty much essentially booted them out of North Korea after they tried to push into it. And that was China at their very worst. Are people really that bad at recalling every conflict where the US actually fought?
Somebody correct me if I'm wrong, but the main reason China/NK managed to not lose was the tried and proven tactic of throwing several times more troops into the meat grinder than the enemy side, wasn't it?
(Also, let's not forget they had the backup of peak USSR.)
Last edited by aldeayeah; May 14th, 2020 at 10:30 AM.
don't quote me on this
I now wonder now if the USA will try the Covid-19 ver. of the Tuskegee syphilis experiment.
Honestly, we don't need to. It's naturally occurring here thanks to racial wealth disparities, housing policies, and cultural practices. Black people already catch it,at above average rates and with higher percentages of comorbidities just due to social conditions.
Asha Records
Fuyuki - Winter Cleaning
My Shameful Fics and the Wiki to go with them. Oh, and some fossil I found.
[16:43] <Twelveseal> Phallus in wonderland sounds like some bad loli-rape KC fanfic
[16:43] <@Sei> THAT'S what i wanna see
Feels like living in a movie where everyone picks the wrong option willingly due to politics.
Trubo, this article was useful considering our earlier discussion
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/0...amacare-257099
as expected, Obamacare is actually gaining stability during the pandemic as more people are seeking healthcare or readying for join the exchanges next year.
note about halfway through the article wherein it noted that elimination of the tax penalty had not notably damaged the law.
I noted that it noted that healthy people hadn’t fled when they got rid of the individual mandate but will in addition note that doing that wasn’t really an effort to make the system fail so much as it was a gambit to enable the “GOP-led lawsuit to invalidate Obamacare” that they note but don’t really talk about later on in the article.
Last edited by Mcjon01; May 14th, 2020 at 11:43 AM.
That’s not true.
Certainly today it is an argument that the GOP are using, but at the time, there was a wide spread belief among conservatives that Obamacare was much more hated then public sentiment surveys suggested, and people were only using it because they were afraid of breaking the law. Therefor, the thinking went that by eliminating the mandate Obamacare would weaken and die quickly under it’s own weight.
At the time? It’s not ancient history man, the nullification of the mandate was passed right at the end of 2017 and the lawsuit was already filed before it even came into effect last year
Your president needs to take his meds. While I'm use to his blaming China tune, it is amusing to see him suggesting breaking trade ties with Europe as well.
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